Title: TRENDS IN AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF GROUNDNUT CROP BASED ON LINEAR AND NON-LINEAR MODELS FOR BANASKANTHA DISTRICT BEFORE AND AFTER BT COTTON INTRODUCTION

Authors: V. P. Patel, M. S. Shitap and D. V. Patel

Publisher: Society of Extension Education Gujarat

Keywords: Bt- cotton, area, production, productivity, polynomial model and ARIMA

Special Issue: 2022

Published on: November 2022

DOI: https://doi.org/10.56572/gjoee.2022.si.0026

Abstract: The time series data on area, production and productivity of groundnut crop for 31 years were collected for Banaskantha district for the period 1985-86 to 2015-16 from Directorate of Agriculture, Gandhinagar, Gujarat State. The entire study period was divided into two sub-periods on the basis of introduction of Bt- cotton as pre Bt-cotton i.e. period I (1985-1986 to 2001-2002) and post Bt- cotton i.e. period II (2002-2003 to 2015-2016). Various polynomial as well as ARIMA models were used to study the growth in area, production and productivity of groundnut crop in Banaskantha district. The results revealed that cubic model during period I, overall period, power model during period II for area, whereas cubic model for period I, ARIMA (1, 1, 1) during period II and ARIMA (3, 2, 3) during overall period for production and cubic model during period II as well as during overall period for productivity were the best fitted.